Some Interesting Numbers

People point to two metrics, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and true shooting percentage, as the standard evaluation for a star player. You can get crazy and combine PER and salary to get a dollar for dollar value, but that’s a little crazy. Unless a player who has a terrible contract is either injured (Eddy Curry) or has had a mental meltdown (Rip Hamilton) and their production is atrocious dollar for dollar value is moot because many players have career years before contracts.It is useful for good role players, however.

Anyway, you can form opinions and posts in many ways.

For example, it’s hard to imagine that Derrick Rose isn’t a top 3 MVP candidate. His PER is 23.22 which is currently 12th in the NBA. In fact, although I consider him a scoring guard, he’s not even the highest rated PG. He’s third.

His 54% TS% is apparently the league average. He’s a less “true” shooter than Shawne Williams. I use Rose as an example because I don’t think high volume-shot point guards can win a championship. Many people would take Manu Ginobili over Rose. You may think they are crazy and may be wrong or stupid or clueless, but the numbers side with them.  It’s a hypothetical argument. Those say they would take Rose will never budge. Rose, by the way, has a lower TS% than Carmelo Anthony. Carmelo is 27th (down from 20th last year) in small forward TS%, but is one of 3 (Durant, Lebron) with a TS% of over 54% and a PER over 20.

TKB favorite Arron Afflalo leads all shooting guards in TS%. Landry Fields is 4th both are shooting over 60%. Does that mean they should get MORE shot attempts? No. The MORE shots they take the LESS effective they are. Afflalo takes 9 shots per game. The other night he shot 8-17, which isn’t bad, and 2-7 from 3.  The law of averages tells the story of TS%. The league average is 54%. Afflalo is a nice player, but a great TS% year may lead to more minutes, bigger money, more shots and less efficiency. Afflalo is an interesting player. He plays over 35 minutes per game but only takes 9 FGAs. That is sure to change now that Billups and Melo are gone. Let’s see if his TS% drops. I have a hunch it will.

We’ll check back in with him. Oh, and one more thing, his PER is a very average AT HIS POSITION 13 and change. That’s about one “point” ahead of Gerald Henderson. He’s right there in the conversation for most improved player in the entire NBA.

To me, TS% is a big man stat. Ty Chandler, ironically, couldn’t hit the rim from 20 feet so he doesn’t shoot from outside 5. He leads the league with a 70% TS%. Brian Cardinal is 6th in the ENTIRE NBA. Dirk is 14th. Does that mean the Mavericks are the best team in the NBA? I think the Mavs are a sleeper, but their playoff record is well-documented. The Spurs have one 1 player in the top 15. Duncan? Nope. Manu or Parker? Guess again.

Matt Bonner is the 3rd highest TS% in the NBA.

And because Chauncey Billups is 7th, does that make him better than Derrick Rose? Much higher TS% and his PER is 8th among NBA PGs, 5 slots behind Rose.

Tiago Splitter plays 11 minutes per game and has a TS% in the top 20.

Chris Bosh is 29th in power forwards in TS%, Amar’e Stoudemire is 19th. The more minutes you play the less efficient you are. There are only 6 players in the top 50 who play 35 minutes or more. 21 of the top 50 play 30 or more.

Numbers are fun, but as we know, can also be very, very misleading.

 

 




2 comments
jaymanjay
jaymanjay

What do they mean by future? I guess if you think 2016 is far away maybe they are right. But to me 2 seasons is not very far away and really it a season and a half season once players become big expiring contracts they become assets and can be traded.

I like this teams future and I intrigued by the pieces assembled. I am not a fan of Williams for several reason primarily that he does not have enough passion and clearly plays like he would prefer to be back in Utah. But other then williams I like the pieces if the correct offensive scheme is put in place.

Robert Konigsberg
Robert Konigsberg

billy king has been a disgrace as a gm. giving up a number 1 for wallace was a joke. giving up tons of number picks for over the hill short term rentals who were just a shell of their former selves was a joke. having all the money in the world to use to build a championship team & all that is left is a boring old over the hill team that has no future for many many years do to his way of running things is a disgrace. yes, the owner is at fault to but billy king should of told prokorov that building a long term exciting team is the only way to go not the stupid way of ruining the future for many years to come for a 1 year pipe dream.